The DHL Global Trade Barometer is an index produced by DHL (part of Deutsche Post) from the millions of data points it collects from the movement of goods and people. DHL is familiar as a parcel delivery service, but also operates airside facilities at airports (check-ins), bulk shipping operations and whole supply chains for some of its customers. This gives the company a unique insight into global demand, which by extension, is a driver for crude oil demand and demand for crude oil tanker services. Using artificial intelligence, this data has been converted into an index of macro global trade demand.
DHL chief executive global forwarding, freight, Tim Scharwath explained how the DHL Global Trade Barometer works in the above video.
According to the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 signals a positive growth.
The latest DHL Global Trade Barometer output predicts that global trade growth will continue to accelerate over the next three months. Compared to the previous release in March, the overall Global Trade Barometer index rose by one point, now standing at 67 points.
Geography-wise, the global improvement was mainly driven by more optimistic outlooks for China and South Korea. The trade forecast for the US has also improved slightly. The positive impact by these three countries was partially offset by reduced outlooks for India, Japan and the UK.
Despite a strong decline by 5 points in the outlook for India, the country still has the highest forecast for overall trade growth with 79 points.
In contrast, the UK has the least favourable outlook with 57 index points, down 4 points compared to March.
Germany remains somewhat in between: a significant increase in air trade by 3 points is offset by a 1 point decline ocean trade. This amounts to an unchanged overall forecast for Germany – which is still markedly positive with an index value of 64.